Tim CookAnalytical perspectiveTC-P01PRODUCT ADVISORY COUNCIL
Separate forecast factors from judgment errors
Tim CookAnalytical perspectiveTC-P01The method
Separate forecast factors from judgment errors
Compare each original forecast with the actual deviation, distinguishing supply, demand, comparison bases and measures within your control.
When to use it
- Results diverge from the plan and require corrective choices rather than a blanket explanation about the environment.
Ask yourself
- Which factors were already in the forecast, and whose impact was misjudged?
- Which part of the buying or usage friction can we change?
Put it into action
- Record forecasts, actual results and factor-level differences; seek independent evidence for the key explanations.
- Choose controllable measures and an observation window while retaining explicit environmental assumptions.
Keep these limits in mind
- A public letter presents management’s explanation, not verified causation.
- Also examine data that challenges the explanation; historical figures are not benchmarks for the current business.